AEW Forbidden Door 2024 Predictions: Wrestling Inc. Picks The Winners
On Sunday, the proverbial prohibited portal opens for a third time, and wider than ever, as Long Island, New York hosts AEW x NJPW Forbidden Door 2024, with special guests STARDOM and CMLL! The 13-match card features 11 matches involving at least one talent from another promotion (and only 11 that we're picking, since two of the three preshow matches were announced after we had already submitted our predictions). It's the kind of show where you never know who might show up — though, as it turns out, we do kind of know (or at least, we think we know) how most of the matches will turn out.
If we seem a little less confident than we usually are, there's a good reason for that. WWE Clash at the Castle was the roughest show yet for this column; thanks to a surprise tag team title victory by The Unholy Union, Otis abandoning Chad Gable long enough for him to lose to Sami Zayn, and the unfortunate matter of a tie pick in the World Heavyweight Championship match, our collective picks went 2-2-1 in Scotland. Our worst-ever showing drops our collective record to 61-8-4, and we're all a little humbled by it.
That said, we're not going to succumb to despair! While AEW cards are typically harder to predict than WWE cards, but this time (possibly thanks to Forbidden Door's cross-promotional nature) there are four matches that absolutely everyone saw going the same way, and two more that almost everyone agreed on. Can this aberrant AEW show get us back on track? Let's get to the picks!
Kris Statlander & Momo Watanabe (52%)
As one of the last matches added to the Forbidden Door card, this Zero Hour bout featuring AEW and STARDOM talent has the Wrestling Inc. staff almost evenly split. Kris Statlander and Momo Watanabe won out with just 52% of the vote, meaning there's still some uncertainty about who will walk away victorious.
Statlander and Willow Nightingale are former friends and tag team partners that have become bitter enemies over the last few months. Both women will meet in singles action soon, as they have advanced to the semi-finals of the ongoing Owen Hart Foundation 2024 Women's Tournament. Meanwhile, in STARDOM, Watanabe and Nakano are both preparing to enter the 5 Star Grand Prix tournament, where they'll face each other one-on-one for the first time since 2019.
With their singles match taking place very soon, it makes slightly more sense for the villainous Statlander and her partner to come out on top, adding some extra tension to the upcoming tournament bouts. Additionally, the presence of Stokely Hathaway at ringside could give another edge to Statlander and Watanabe. We may not be as confident here as in some of our other picks, but a Statlander/Watanabe victory seems to be the most logical direction to take.
Written by Nick Miller
Samoa Joe, HOOK & Katsuyori Shibata (57%)
Is this match even happening? Is it really two matches, instead? On last week's "AEW Collision," the team of HOOK, Samoa Joe, and Katsuyori Shibata challenged "The Learning Tree" Chris Jericho and his disciples, Big Bill and Bryan Keith, to a trios match at Forbidden Door. On this week's "Dynamite," however, Jericho revealed that Keith is injured and attempted to enlist "Murder Grandpa" Minoru Suzuki, but Suzuki challenged Jericho to a singles match instead. It seems that the trios match is still on for Forbidden Door, however, and based on reports from Wednesday's "Collision" taping, most people are assuming Jericho and Bill will team with NJPW's Jeff Cobb. Nothing has been announced, however, and Cobb had previously issued a Forbidden Door open challenge for his NJPW World Television Championship. This combination of circumstances have led some to speculate that Forbidden Door will play host to singles matches between Cobb and Joe, and another between Jericho and Suzuki.
We're going with the six-man tag with Cobb because it really seems like that's the way AEW is going, but all this surrounding weirdness makes it easy to understand why the WINC staff are fairly well split on this one. And while several of us believe in the power of Chris Jericho to get himself put over in non-title matches, a slim majority of 57% see the babyfaces taking the contest, and hopefully chopping down "The Learning Tree" once and for all.
Written by Miles Schneiderman
The Elite (100%)
One of the most recent additions to Forbidden Door sees The Elite attempting to make an example out of the latest AEW stars to get on their bad side; The Acclaimed. However, Max Caster and Anthony Bowens thought the best way to fight an authority figure is to join forces with an authority figure of their own. Enter the President of New Japan Pro Wrestling, Hiroshi Tanahashi.
The Acclaimed picking up a victory over The Young Bucks in an eliminator match on the June 19 edition of "AEW Dynamite" has guaranteed them a shot at the AEW Tag Team Championships in the near future, and if anyone knows The Rainmaker, it's Tanahashi. Everything should be pointing to a victory for the crowd favorites, so why has our team given the AEW Continental Champion and the company's EVPs a clean sweep?
For starters, Okada's Rainmaker finishing move has been one of the most protected moves in the company since he arrived in March. The days of him hitting multiple ripcord lariats like he did in New Japan seem to be gone, and one Rainmaker to any one of their opponents will end the match there and then. As for The Young Bucks, picking up a victory over the team next in line to challenge for them titles offers up a sense of unpredictability going into their yet-to-be-announced title match. If this was a straight two-on-two bout, logic would usually point to the champions retaining as The Acclaimed won the first bout, so by giving the champions a win at Forbidden Door, it makes their eventual title bout a little more unpredictable. With no exceptions, we see The Elite reigning supreme.
Written by Sam Palmer
MJF (100%)
Coming off a historic reign as AEW World Champion, the recently-returned MJF looks to get himself back on track with his first pay-per-view win since November 2023. To achieve that, though, MJF will have to conquer former CMLL World Heavyweight Champion Hechicero. According the entirety of Wrestling Inc. staff, MJF will do just that.
A singles match between MJF and Hechicero was first introduced as a "surprise" by Cage of Agony and Hechicero himself on the June 19 episode of "AEW Dynamite." Since then, MJF has found his attention relatively diverted, particularly by the likes of Daniel Garcia and AEW International Champion Will Ospreay, the former of which he is aiming to wrestle at AEW All In. At the same time, MJF has made it clear that he's also keen on regaining the AEW World Championship, which is currently held by Swerve Strickland. Regardless of which path he ventures down, MJF is more than likely to be involved in at least one championship program in the aftermath of AEW x NJPW Forbidden Door. As such, his momentum should remain quite favorable, and a win against Hechicero will ensure that remains the case. Furthermore, AEW x NJPW Forbidden Door will be located within the vicinity of MJF's hometown of Plainville, New York, making an MJF victory celebration all the more enticing for fans (especially those of his hometown) and MJF himself.
If for nothing else, Forbidden Door marks the MJF's first in-ring PPV appearance in six months, so why not pair it with a win?
Written by Ella Jay
Zack Sabre Jr. (71%)
Well over half of us believe that Orange Cassidy vs. Zack Sabre Jr. is going to be a "W" in the column of NJPW, with Sabre coming out on top. The two are set to face off at Forbidden Door in a sort of rematch from last year's event, after they crossed paths in the International Championship four-way match that also featured Daniel Garcia and Katsuyori Shibata, where Cassidy successfully defended the title. With no gold on the line, we're pretty sure that Sabre comes out with the victory; we're going with a lot of AEW talent getting victories on this card overall, so Sabre besting Cassidy would be a win for NJPW and a feel-good moment for their fans without having anything as important as a championship change hands.
While Cassidy said in an interview that he believes facing Sabre in the four-way match last year gives him an advantage ahead of their singles match, he's also coming out of a Best Friends breakup, and we can't be certain where his mind is these days, even if Cassidy would never show that there's still something wrong from their split in April. Cassidy called Sabre "the best technical wrestler in the world" and admitted their match is "daunting." Cassidy's mind could also still be on the International Championship, as he's mentioned the belt, currently held by Will Ospreay, who Cassidy called "the best wrestler in the world," in multiple interviews. With Cassidy possibly not 100% focused on Sabre, 71% of us believe the NJPW talent gets the win.
Written by Daisy Ruth
Owen Hart Foundation 2024 Men's Tournament: Bryan Danielson (94%)
"The American Dragon" is facing "The Dragon" on Sunday, and the Wrestling Inc. Staff are almost unanimously behind the one from America.
Bryan Danielson sure does lose a lot. Even the former WWE Champion recognized it in a recent promo, where he admitted he was less than thrilled with his track record against former IWGP World Heavyweight Champions like Kazuchika Okada and Will Ospreay. He's adamant that if he can't pass muster in the Owen Hart Cup then it might be time for him to retire from full-time wrestling once and for all. At Forbidden Door, Danielson has a chance to change his fortunes, as he faces a former IWGP World Heavyweight Champion who has extensive rivalries with both Okada and Ospreay, Shingo Takagi. Fresh off losing the NEVER Openweight Title to Henare, Takagi is ready to prove himself in the first round of the Owen Hart Cup, but 94% of the Wrestling Inc. Staff believe that Danielson will finally get that big win he's been itching for.
Takagi and Danielson will no doubt put on a stellar match, and it's a little unfortunate that Takagi is once again going to put on a Herculean performance in service of making someone else look better, but only a minute percentage of the WINC staff give him a shot to win.
Written by Ross Berman
IWGP World Heavyweight Championship: Tetsuya Naito (82%)
With Kazuchika Okada officially All Elite and Hiroshi Tanahashi busy with presidential duties, Tetsuya Naito is the top dog in New Japan and as the company heads into G1 Climax season, it almost feels wrong that Naito isn't heading into the summer with NJPW's top prize.
Roughly 94% of the Wrestling Inc. staff believe that it is once again Naito's time to hold the IWGP World Heavyweight Championship. Moxley's tenure with the title has caused much consternation in the NJPW locker room, with numerous talent saying how wrong it is for an outsider like Moxley to be the company's representative. With the addition of CMLL and STARDOM to the Forbidden Door festivities, NJPW risks being an afterthought or a supporting player in what should be one of its tentpole events in the United States. Often the IWGP Champion has a pretty easy title defense, such as SANADA's win over Jack Perry last year, and a competitive match between two veteran stars like Naito and Moxley would certainly be a better showcase for the world title, which often takes a backseat to AEW's own world title. Should Naito win, NJPW can claim just a modicum of victory over AEW, with their Ace defeating AEW's Ace on the one night when it truly mattered.
Written by Ross Berman
AEW TBS Championship vs. NJPW STRONG Women's Championship: Mercedes Mone (94%)
A year after their initial faceoff at NJPW Resurgence, Stephanie Vaquer and Mercedes Mone will soon meet once again, with the stakes greatly elevated. For this occasion, Mone will defend her TBS Championship, while Vaquer raises the NJPW STRONG Women's Championship. The winner, of course, will then walk out of AEW x NJPW Forbidden Door with not one, but two titles.
Vaquer's reign as NJPW STRONG Women's Champion began with a hard-fought victory over Giulia at the 2024 Stardom Cinderella Tournament event. Since then, "La Primera" has successfully defended the title across Mexico, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Her most recent retention took place at the CMLL x NJPW Fantastica Mania Mexico show on June 21, after which Mone confronted her in the ring.
Looking back on their previous encounter, Mone recognized that Vaquer had immensely grown since then. Nevertheless, Mone vowed to show Vaquer why she earned the nickname of "The CEO." Furthermore, Mone asserted that "money changes everything" — a sentiment that AEW President Tony Khan seems to agree with as well.
On the heels of Mone's arrival to All Elite Wrestling, Khan touted Mone as one of the official new faces of the company. To back up his claim, Khan pointed toward Mone's ability to not only deliver stellar in-ring performances, but also bring in a fresh, and consistent, palette of viewers from all over the globe. With this in mind, 92% of Wrestling Inc. staff believe AEW will continue to push Mone as a prominent fixture, and award her the distinction of "Mercedes Two Belts."
Written by Ella Jay
TNT Championship Ladder Match: Jack Perry (100%)
It feels weird to have such a conclusive winner in mind when there are six participants in a match, but the ladder match for the TNT Championship has only had one story going into it; Jack Perry wants the title. The Young Bucks were initially going to hand the title to Perry when Adam Copeland was forced to vacate it due to injury, but AEW President Tony Khan (by way of Christopher Daniels) set up a ladder match for Forbidden Door to determine the new champion, which brings us up to speed.
Joining Perry in the match will be ROH World Champion Mark Briscoe, Konosuke Takeshita, Dante Martin, Lio Rush, and representing New Japan Pro Wrestling, El Phantasmo. When you look at the rest of the field, it's a lot easier to see why Perry earned a clean sweep in predictions from the Wrestling Inc. team. As much as fans love the ROH World Champion, Mark Briscoe hasn't been in the mix enough in AEW to warrant a victory. Dante Martin is still in the category of "very promising future champion," but still has ways to go before being taken seriously as a singles guy. Lio Rush isn't technically signed to the company, as far as we know, and it's unlikely Phantasmo would be given the belt if he is full-time in NJPW.
The only other possible contender is Konosuke Takeshita, who could win and represent AEW as the TNT Champion in the G1 Climax over the summer since NJPW fans would be familiar with him by winning it at a show co-promoted by NJPW. However, The Elite want all of the titles in AEW, and the next one they want to add to their collection is the TNT Championship. Perry will bring it home this Sunday.
Written by Sam Palmer
AEW Women's World Championship: Toni Storm (100%)
Though this is one of the more intriguing matches with a good storyline build behind it, not a single one of us who cast our Forbidden Door predictions here at WINC believe that STARDOM's Mina Shirakawa is taking the AEW Women's World Championship from "Timeless" Toni Storm. Which also means Shirakawa won't be taking her former tag team partner and Storm's current protegee Mariah May from the "Timeless" one, either, something she promised to do during their contract signing on "Dynamite." Though, May and Shirakawa may not continue to be friends for long following the STARDOM talent accidentally cracking May over the head with a bottle of champagne, aiming for Storm, following their most recent match on "Dynamite," though they did score a win over The Outcasts.
At the time of Forbidden Door, Storm will have held the title for 225 total days this reign, and we just don't see it ending right now. Many of us here are big fans of Storm's "Timeless" gimmick and May's current story of going through Storm's "eras" in character. Even those of us who aren't Storm fans believe the title is changing hands when May gets to her own "Timeless" era of Storm cosplay and the two go head-to-head in the culmination of this "All About Eve" story. While the feud over the title (and May) between Storm and Shirakawa has been a great storyline on AEW programming, we just don't see the STARDOM star sticking around to hold the gold over such an over gimmick that is Toni Storm.
Written by Daisy Ruth
AEW World Championship: Swerve Strickland (82%)
There's no question that Swerve Strickland and Will Ospreay are two of the biggest names in AEW right now, but that doesn't mean that we aren't leaning much more to one of them emerging victorious in their AEW World Championship, with 82% of us thinking that Strickland will be keeping hold of his AEW World Championship.
Ospreay has undeniably been given a huge push since his arrival in AEW, and has been booked as a mainstay of AEW programming. Right now, though, he's in between storylines, with AEW All In growing closer and closer by the second in his home country of England. With a few possible matches for him on the table, it's becoming apparent that he's moving into a storyline with MJF. If he were to win the AEW World Championship, with everything else he's involved in, it seems unlikely that he would be able to dedicate his time, energy, and focus on defending the AEW World Championship.
All of Strickland's storylines to date have, in some way, revolved around the AEW World Championship, and while his storylines have diverged from that and become something more personal, he has shown that he has the capacity to give all of his attention to it. For the most part, we don't see his reign ending at Forbidden Door.
Written by Olivia Quinlan